Alex Melvin and Mohit Arora cover what has changed across the crude complex since late March. They walk through the U.S. shift from kinetic operations to an indefinite ceasefire and economic blockade against Iran, with Iranian storage now close to saturation and Kharg Island showing no loadings on satellite. The conversation also covers the UAE's May 1 exit from OPEC and its plan to roughly double Fujairah pipeline capacity, part of a broader regional move to build export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Alex and Mohit close on why this is primarily a refined-products story rather than a crude one — with gasoline, jet, and distillate inventories swinging from the top of their seasonal ranges to the bottom — alongside demand destruction, market-structure shifts, and the downside risks that have drawn less attention.

For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com.

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

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