Natty After Fern

Description

In this episode of The Energy Desk, Drew Boyce and Alex Melvin dive into the aftermath of Winter Storm Fern and its significant impact on natural gas markets in early February 2026. The discussion covers production freeze-offs reaching 14-15 BCF per day, unprecedented price volatility in the Northeast with basis points in the $140s, and the stark reality of financial versus physical market settlements.

‍

The hosts explore the regional disparities in how the storm affected different producing basins, with Haynesville experiencing unexpected production losses due to ice and precipitation. They analyze the dramatic shift in speculator positioning, with over 100,000 short contracts being covered in just three weeks and discuss the implications of warmer weather forecasts.

‍

Looking forward, Drew and Alex examine the challenges facing West Texas producers as WAHA basis returns to negative territory (reaching -$1.20), the delayed timeline for the Golden Pass LNG facility coming online, and the broader 2026 outlook, including potential data center demand, summer weather patterns, and the critical balance between production growth and LNG capacity additions.

‍