Signal and Noise

Recorded Monday, March 30, Mohit and Alex cover where the Middle East supply disruption stands four weeks in — separating what the underlying data shows from the figures circulating in media coverage.

‍

Regional production curtailments are running between 8 and 10 million barrels per day, with Iraq and Kuwait bearing the largest share. Saudi Arabia has rerouted exports to Red Sea terminals via the East-West pipeline and is now operating near capacity there. Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued, with vessels transiting dark — AIS transponders off — and Iran granting passage to ships affiliated with non-hostile countries. Japan, China, and India together accounted for roughly two-thirds of Strait flows through 2025 and have been among the first to resume transits.

‍

On pricing, the episode covers why the market response has been more measured than some historical supply disruptions might suggest — global inventory positions entering 2026 were considerably more comfortable than they were ahead of the Russia disruption in 2022. Diesel crack spreads — which measure refining margins — have moved into demand destruction territory, and that pressure is beginning to register at the pump and in Asian jet fuel markets. The Brent-WTI spread has also widened, reflecting how geopolitical risk concentrates in waterborne crude benchmarks while WTI's landlocked characteristics give it a different risk profile.

‍

The episode closes on resolution scenarios and what a ceasefire or diplomatic framework could mean for the forward curve — including a consortium-based Strait management structure, modeled on the Suez Canal, as one candidate path — and why the supply landscape at the end of this conflict will look considerably different from the one that preceded it.

‍

For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com.

‍

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

‍