Cracks, Crude, Water, Food

Recorded Wednesday, March 4, as U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran were still unfolding — Mohit and Alex break down the market dynamics and what it means for participants across the sector.

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The immediate pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. When insurers pulled coverage for vessels transiting the region, tanker traffic dropped sharply — effectively stalling a significant share of global oil supply. Iraq compounded the disruption by curtailing production and halting a key pipeline export route. Crude benchmarks spiked to start the week before stabilizing Wednesday, after the Trump administration announced an insurance backstop and potential naval escorts through the Strait.

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The conversation also covers product markets — specifically diesel.

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They also cover what could reverse this move: sanctioned barrels already on the water, China sitting on substantial onshore inventories, a larger-than-expected OPEC increase, and Kazakhstan supply coming back online. A market that flipped from net short to net long in days could see a sharp reversal if the geopolitical situation de-escalates.

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📧 Questions or want to talk through what this means for your portfolio: podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com

This commentary reflects the views of Mobius Risk Group and is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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