The evolution of power price risks in the age of AI-driven demand growth

Regional power market dynamics, shifting resource usage, and the reasons to pay attention to your basis risk exposure

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The discussion starts with a primer on Independent System Operators and the distinct fuel mixes and reliability profiles that shape each U.S. regional grid. From there, the focus turns to what makes ERCOT structurally different: no forward capacity auction, a reliance on scarcity pricing, and a hub-versus-zone basis dynamic driven by wind concentration and transmission constraints in West Texas.

Casey and Jason explain why historical basis settlement isn't enough for industrial buyers — forecasting congestion, generation additions, and retirements matters more — and close on the data center demand question: committed ERCOT load that could nearly double peak demand, forward curves that haven't repriced, and a continuous-power reliability requirement that reshapes the resource conversation.

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For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at podcast@mobiusriskgroup.com.

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

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